– by David Clark

Tourism: Why And How Many? 

The tourist season is about to get underway, so this might be a good time to look at some official government tourism data.  

We get a sense of tourism’s importance when we encounter heavy traffic on local roads (although some are just passing through) and crowding at local tourist attractions, restaurants, and beaches.

But what, exactly, does tourism look like in Grey and Bruce – what are the facts?

For this article I am using a six-year data set covering 1996 to 2001 (from my Master’s thesis), and a three-year data set (2014 to 2016) from the Ministry of Tourism; both data sets were compiled by Statistics Canada.

How Many Tourists? 

Domestic tourism in Ontario, which accounts for about 80 to 90 per cent of tourism, has grown in absolute numbers.

In a six-year period from 1996 to 2001 the average number of Ontario domestic tourists was 69.2 million.

In the three-year period from 2014 to 2016 tourism grew to an average of 121.3 million, an increase of about 69% whereas the population grew by about 20%. 

Grey and Bruce hosted a mean (average) of 1.1 and 2.3 million visitors respectively, from 1996 to 2001.

The period from 2014 to 2016 experienced a 30% increase for Grey to 1.5 million visitors while Bruce saw a 40% decline to 1.4  million. Both counties under-performed compared to Ontario’s increase.  

As percentages of all domestic tourism in Ontario, Grey ranged from 1.19%  to 1.84% (1996 to 2001) and from 1.19% to 1.56% (2014 to 2016).

Bruce ranged  from 2.27% to 2.92% (1996 to 2001) and 1.03% to 1.31% (2014 to 2016). The  following graph illustrates these fluctuations. 

Where Are They From? 

First, let’s define a tourist. This is anyone who travels at least 80 kilometres from their usual place of residence, but not for employment or for more than one year. That is how Statistics Canada defines a tourist.

Also, this means that a staycationer is someone who travels less than 80 kilometres from their usual place residence and who does touristy stuff, like going to Sauble Beach from Owen Sound, eating in restaurants, shopping at Walmart, or picking up some spiced rum at the LCBO: they are NOT tourists.

So, county boundaries are not relevant – only distance – but statistics are collected at the county level, actually at the census division (CD) level. 

Statistics Canada aggregates tourists’ origins at three different levels so I have included statistics for each in the table below.

The largest originating CD of tourists to Bruce are from Grey (24.1%) and from within Bruce travelling more than 80 kilometers (11.1%).

The largest originating CD of tourists to Grey are from Simcoe CD (15.1%) and from within Grey CD (14.6%). The rest of the tourists come from a variety of CDs in lower percentages.

 The data are clear: many tourists are not travelling from any great distances (see column A).

Grey is interesting regarding Toronto, and I suggest the destination is most likely the Blue Mountains, which are in Grey County, with Collingwood (Simcoe) as a twin tourist attractor.

The larger tourism region amalgamations (column B) support the suggestion that tourists don’t travel from great distances, generally. Column C further supports this.

Tourism statistics include data for fifteen CMAs and the top three coming to Grey Bruce are not coming from too far. Of the big cities, Toronto tourists seem to be heading to the Blue Mountains area and, I suggest, the Bruce Peninsula.

When Do They Come And How Long Do They Stay? 

There is an explanation for the above pattern: About 72% of all trips to Grey and Bruce are same-day, about 80 to 200 kilometres distance.

And those that do stay overnight stay for only one night (about 11%) or two (about 9%).

There is further  explanation: much visitation is for visiting friends and relatives (VFR); 34.5% for Bruce and 37.8% for Grey.

Business trips account for 10.4% of trips for Bruce and  6.4% for Grey.

Trips for pleasure are higher for Grey (38.5%) than Bruce at  28.9%.

Note that these are separate categories in the statistics for the question what is your main purpose of the trip. The following graph highlights this rather dramatically. 

The above explains the short trips and few over-night stays. In fact, almost 90% of those staying over are for three nights or less; 89.6% for Grey and 84.2% for Bruce.

Almost 70% of overnight stays in Bruce are one or two nights and in Grey it is 77%. 

Grey and Bruce are four-season destinations now (see graph below), albeit mostly for VFR, but that was not the case twenty years ago for Bruce.

Bruce peaks in the fourth quarter (which includes Thanksgiving and Christmas) and Grey in the first, which may well be driven by the pull of Blue Mountains.

The second and third quarters show about equal tourist levels for each county. The third quarter is prime tourist season and includes several long weekends.  

Since 2001 there has been a flattening-out, at least in Bruce, of the seasonal differences in numbers of tourists.

For example 2001 saw about 58% of all tourists in the third quarter (July to September) and about 7% in the first quarter (January to March).

Grey saw minor changes, with an increase to 29% from 24% for the first quarter and a slight drop from 28% to 23% for the second quarter.

Where Do They Stay? 

Primarily, tourists are staying in private homes and cottages.

Bruce County hosts about 64% in private homes and cottages, about 26% in hotels and motels, and only about 4% are campers.

Grey’s numbers are about 70%, 19%, and 11%, respectively. This reflects the very strong VFR tourism component. 

Since 2001 there has been a significant increase in stays in private homes and cottages, with increases in Bruce from 45% to 64%, and in Grey from 57% to 72%.

This would indicate there has been a shift away from hotels, motels, and  camping. Camping in 2001 accounted for stays of 18% for Bruce and 10% for Grey.

What Activities Do They Do? 

Note: Activities engaged in are different that primary purpose of the trip. Tourists choose one only primary purpose for a trip but may have more than one activity to report. 

So, what do they do? Well, they visit friends and relatives. The table below summarises activities reported, but I have also removed VFR and shopping (everybody shops!) to allow us to drill down to capture other things that both VFRers and non-VFRers engage in. 

Likely these activities are no surprise to those of us living in Grey Bruce,  although it is interesting to see slight differences and differential rank orderings.  

We should take note of activities that have low to negligible participation and see how they align with what is marketed by local tourism agencies: Do they really come for the beaches and trails and snowmobiling?

The following table shows all activities grouped by percentage of participation. 

Since 2001 there has been very little shift in the ranking of top activities, except for a few declines.

How Old (Or Young) Are They? 

Almost 65% of tourists are 45 years and older and the mean (average) age is 49. The largest single group is that of those aged 65 years and older is about 25%. Of those less than 45 years old, the largest single adult group is aged 18 to 24 years (17.3% for Bruce; 13.6% for Grey).

The BIG Question: How Much Do They Spend? 

Averaged over three years (2014 to 2016), spending in Bruce totaled $130.9 million and in Grey it was $106.6 million.

Of that, about 55% was for food / beverages and clothing. Interestingly, although we think of Grey and Bruce as prime recreation and culture destinations, these generated only about 12% of the totals. 

Other Visitor Characteristics 

• Notably, females out-number males at almost 56% to 44%
• Between 66% and 70% have education that is college or higher
• About 63% for Bruce and 47% for Grey earn $75,000 or more
• The largest category of spending is for food and beverages at about 45% of total budget
• Of the food and beverage spending, most is in restaurants: 68% in Bruce and 79% in Grey
• Spending on recreation and culture is about only 10% in Bruce, 14% in  Grey

We often talk about tourists as if they are one large homogenous group but there are varied interests amongst the visitors.

And we age and change our interests, maybe camping in our younger years, doing lodges later on, and then more exotic destinations, money permitting. So, it is not surprising that tourism numbers are different than twenty years ago.

Tourism is fickle and there is an area of study that looks at an evolutionary phenomenon called tourism area life cycle that explores why tourism areas can go from boom to bust, not unlike fads and technology for example.

Changes tend to  happen slowly over time, although there may be an occasional positive or negative spike from one year to the next. Like a community getting excited about a slight increase in its population from the last census, it is the big picture – the long term – that is important, not the occasional quirk.

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Note: 2016 is the last year tourism data were available from the Ontario Ministry of Tourism as provided by Statistics Canada. This allows a pre-COVID-19 analysis.

Without data, you are just another person with an opinion.

David Clark, Research Consultant – MA, BES, BA(Hon), MAd(Diploma)
Independent Researcher (and Builder of Cigar Box Guitars and Basses)